Recently, I asked my newsletter readers and members of the NY Tech Meetup who they supported for Mayor. Hundreds of responses later, the results were pretty interesting.
First off, you have to win the primary, so let's start with Registered NYC Democrats and Republicans. That's key, because many of the respondants who answered the survey with who they were supporting were either a) not registered to vote in NYC or b) not registered with a political party. Unfortunately, this disqualifies you from voting in city primaries.
Here, Christine Quinn has a pretty clear lead. Interesting notes:
-- 100% of the women surveyed supported Quinn.
-- The only respondants who supported Bill de Blasio were not registered to vote as Democrats in NYC.
-- Quinn supporters were just as likely to live outside of Manhattan as other candidates.
-- All of the Anthony Weiner supporters were male.
-- The younger you were, the more likely you were to support Anthony Weiner.
As for Republicans, it turns out to be pretty hard to find registered Republicans in NYC. On top of that, it seems even harder to find Republicans who supported Republican candidates. The total? Four. Among that statistically insignificant sample, all four voted for Sal Albanese. I'm not even going to create a chart for that. Congrats Sal, you won. Welcome to the bluest community in the bluest city on the planet. Prepare to lose.
When you add in everyone all together in a single race, this is what you get:
This is where it gets a little more interesting. While Quinn still leads, independent and unaffiliated voters definitely seem to support Anthony Weiner. There's also a bit of cross voting going on--Dems supporting Joe Lhota, Republicans for Weiner, etc. Its almost enough to suggest that even if Weiner loses the primary, he might consider running as an Independent.
Still, there's lots more race to go--although this Five Thirty Eight story suggest that early leaders in NYC polling tend to win.